Beijing, November 27 (Fang Jinglun) - the U.S. government announced on the 23rd that it would jointly release crude oil reserves from a number of major oil consuming countries to cool oil prices. The US Department of energy will release 50 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic oil reserve and sell it to the market as early as mid and late December this year. According to Xinhua news agency, helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy of Royal Bank of Canada capital markets, predicts that in view of India's announced plan to release 5 million barrels of crude oil reserves, coupled with the release of Japan, South Korea, Britain and other countries, the scale of crude oil reserves released by the multinational joint release is expected to be 65 million barrels to 70 million barrels.
Guo Yi, a professor at the school of international economics and management of Beijing University of technology and technology, said that the deep-seated reason for the rise in international oil prices is that the United States has issued more than US dollars for a long time, resulting in the rise of oil prices denominated in US dollars. In addition, since the epidemic, the uncertainty expectation of the world's major oil producing countries on the prospect of international economic development has increased, which has correspondingly reduced the amount of oil invested in the international market, resulting in the imbalance of supply relations.
On the day of the release of the news of the release of crude oil reserves in the United States, the crude oil futures price (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Brent crude oil futures price in London rose by 2.28% and 3.27% respectively. Why did oil prices rise instead of fall that day?
"The release of strategic stocks in the United States has been expected by the market, and the market has digested this expectation in advance, and the release of reserves is far less than the market expectation." Dong kangyin, deputy director of the Department of energy and low carbon economics, School of international economics and trade, University of foreign economics and trade, believes that the release of crude oil reserves is mainly to deal with the impact of oil supply and abnormal rise of oil prices, But it is difficult to solve the fundamental contradiction between supply and demand. At present, with the arrival of winter in the northern hemisphere, oil demand has increased greatly, but supply is relatively scarce. The release scale of strategic inventory is not large enough to change the supply-demand structure and stabilize oil prices.
"Some countries, including the major member countries of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), have little response to the release of crude oil stocks by the United States." Guo Yi believes that this phenomenon also reflects the ability of some countries to control international oil prices and the declining appeal for concerted action with oil producing countries.
So, what impact will the multinational release of crude oil reserves have on China?
"At present, the release of crude oil reserves has not had much impact on China." Dong kangyin said that China is a big oil consumer and importer, and the decline of oil price will be conducive to China's development. Even if the ultimate effect of releasing crude oil reserves is very little, in the face of high oil prices, China's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient and still within an affordable range.
On November 24, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said at a regular press conference that China would arrange the release of national reserve crude oil according to its actual situation and needs, take other necessary measures to maintain market stability, and publish relevant information in a timely manner.
"By putting in its own strategic reserve oil, we can stabilize the impact of imported inflation caused by the rise of international oil prices." Guo Yi believes that for China, we should pay close attention to and rationally analyze the different forces causing crude oil price fluctuations in the international market, and take some positive measures to stabilize the fluctuations of international oil prices, For example, increase the supply of domestic crude oil reserves to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of their own economy.
According to Xinhua News Agency on November 26th, South Africa's health ministry announced 25 days that it found a new variant of COVID-19 strain. Affected by the news, crude oil suffered a heavy setback. As of press time, WTI crude oil futures fell 13.139% and London Brent crude oil futures fell 11.369%.
"The main reason for the decline of crude oil on the 26th is the market panic caused by the epidemic, which has little to do with the release of crude oil reserves in the United States." Dong kangyin said that the short-term fluctuation of the market caused by the emergency does not represent the real impact of the release of crude oil reserves. Therefore, the timing, quantity and mode of China's release of crude oil reserves still need to be determined in due time after further wait and see.
(source: People's daily)