Following the last round of refined oil price increases, domestic refined oil prices ushered in the eleventh increase in 2019. On September 18, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice that at 24:00 on September 18, the price limit for gasoline and diesel will be raised by 125 yuan per ton of gasoline and diesel.

The Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission stated that No. 89 gasoline was adjusted from 6.21 yuan per liter to 6.31 yuan, an increase of 0.10 yuan; No. 92 gasoline was adjusted from 6.64 yuan per liter to 6.74 yuan, an increase of 0.10 yuan; No. 95 gasoline was adjusted from 7.06 yuan per liter to 7.17 yuan, an increase of 0.11 yuan; No. 0 diesel was adjusted from 6.30 yuan per liter to 6.41 yuan, an increase of 0.11 yuan.

Based on the calculation of ordinary private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, after this price adjustment, car owners will spend about 5 yuan more to fill up a tank of fuel. According to the model of 7L-8L fuel consumption per 100 kilometers in the urban area, the average cost per 1,000 kilometers will increase by about 7-8 yuan.

It is worth noting that the attack on Saudi oil facilities on Saturday (September 14) led to the suspension of more than 5 million barrels per day of energy. The negative impact continued to ferment, aggravating supply risk concerns, and international oil prices soared, the largest one-day increase since 1988.

Xu Wenwen, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that after the price adjustment, gasoline has increased by 365 yuan/ton and diesel by 370 yuan/ton this year. The next price adjustment window will open at 24: 00 on October 8, 2019.

The cumulative increase in gasoline this year is 365 yuan/ton.

This price adjustment for private car owners and logistics enterprises, the cost increased slightly. Based on the calculation of ordinary private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, after this price adjustment, car owners will spend about 5 yuan more on filling a tank of oil. According to the 7L-8L model of 100 kilometers of fuel consumption in the urban area, the average cost per 1,000 kilometers will increase by about 7-8 yuan.

Xu Wenwen, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that after this round of price adjustments, the retail price of No. 92 gasoline in most parts of the country is limited to 6.5-6.7 yuan per liter. The price adjustment will increase the cost of oil for some private car owners. After the price adjustment, gasoline has increased by 365 yuan/ton and diesel by 370 yuan/ton this year.

"During the current pricing cycle (September 3-September 18), due to geopolitical factors, international oil prices have risen as a whole, the rate of change in the three places has continued to be positive, and refined oil prices have risen for two consecutive times." Longzhong information refined oil analyst Liu Peipei analysis said.

Liu Peipei said that at present, crude oil prices are rising, Shandong refining prices continue to push up, coupled with the uneven allocation of resources in East China, South China, Southwest and other places, resulting in tight supply of refined oil resources in many regions, a variety of factors driving the domestic diesel oil purchase and sale atmosphere, the industry replenishment mentality to a good, driving the main business, refining to speed up the pace of outbound, but the continued high wholesale prices also make the terminal retail profits seriously reduced.

"This increase in gasoline and diesel prices continues to bring good support to the market. In October, gasoline consumption remained stable, outdoor operations such as engineering and infrastructure were rushing to work one after another, and the logistics and transportation industry also became active, greatly driving domestic diesel demand. The middle and lower reaches continue to be optimistic about the market outlook, coupled with the overall shortage of supply in the market, the probability that the prices of main units and refineries will continue to rise is still large, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to continue to rise steadily before the next round of price adjustment cycle." Liu Peipei said.

Oil prices ride a roller coaster as Saudi production capacity recovers quickly

On Saturday, attacks on Saudi oil facilities led to the suspension of more than 5 million barrels per day. The negative impact continued to ferment, increasing supply risk concerns, and international oil prices soared.

On September 16, WTI and Brent's opening gains were the biggest one-day gains since 1991. Brent crude oil rose nearly 19% in the morning and NYMEX crude oil futures rose more than 16%. As of the close, domestic crude oil futures closed up more than 6%, fuel oil, asphalt rose 5%, ethylene glycol futures closed, Zheng alcohol, plastics rose more than 4%.

Then the international oil price is now a roller coaster. On Tuesday, the Saudi Energy Minister revealed at a press conference that Saudi Arabia's damaged production capacity has successfully recovered by 50% in the past two days and is expected to return to normal levels by the end of September-about 11 million barrels per day, which is expected to rise further to 12 million barrels per day by the end of November. By the close, WTI October crude oil futures were down 5.7 percent at $59.34 a barrel, while Brent crude oil's October contract was down 6.5 percent at $64.46 a barrel.

"Supported by the skyrocketing cost of crude oil, the domestic refined oil market prices have risen sharply. Diesel has been linked to the highest wholesale price limit. Gasoline has increased by as much as 300-500 yuan/ton, and some have increased by more than 1,000. Sales." Longzhong information analysis master Xiaosheng said.

He introduced that under the favorable support of tight resources, various regions have entered the price increase mode one after another, and the downstream is likely to increase and replenish. The demand for stock has improved compared with the previous period. The main daily shipments in East China range from 2000 to 3000 tons. The center of gravity of transactions also rose rapidly. The center of gravity of transactions at the wholesale end of gasoline in East China rose to around 7200 yuan/ton, while the center of gravity of diesel transactions rose to around 7000 yuan/ton.

Retail prices rose, the latter part of the gas station zero spread profit rebounded. Fu Xiaosheng said that combined with the analysis of the current Longzhong data model, compared with the previous price adjustment cycle, retail prices have increased, while wholesale prices have recently increased significantly, making the profit margin of gas stations fall back from the previous period. Among them, the average retail profit of gasoline at the main gas station fell by 328 yuan per ton; the main retail profit of diesel fell by 125 yuan per ton, and the profit of diesel at the sales refining gas station fell simultaneously, by 46 yuan/ton, and the profit of gasoline at the sales refining gas station fell by 131 yuan/ton.

He predicts that retail profits will pick up later. The forecast increase in retail profit for gasoline is about 0.09 yuan/liter, while the decrease in retail profit for diesel is about 0.11 yuan/liter.

The next round of refined oil price adjustment or upward

The next price adjustment window will open at 24: 00 on October 8, 2019. Li Yan, an analyst with Longzhong information, said that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show an upward trend, with a range of about 200 yuan/ton. In mid-September, Saudi oil facilities suffered the biggest attack in a decade, the international crude oil market turmoil intensified, bullish confidence has increased, the favorable geopolitical factors overshadowed the weak economic and demand expectations, the bottom support of international oil prices has been strengthened. It is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustment is greater.

Jinlianchuang analyst team said that due to the recent obvious increase in crude oil, entering a new round of pricing cycle, the rate of change may be a positive start, and the increase is expected to reach 400 yuan/ton, so the next round of retail prices is more likely to meet the "three consecutive increases.

"With the current round of retail price increases to cash in, the region's main gasoline and diesel prices will be higher with the trend, when the price of diesel or continue to maintain the price limit level, and gasoline transaction prices are gradually close to the price limit. Entering a new round of pricing cycle, 'three consecutive ups' is expected to still support the market." Jin Lianchuang's team of analysts said.

The analyst team said that during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, private car travel frequency is higher, gasoline demand is also supported. The domestic refined oil market is obviously supported by fundamentals, and the resource tension in some areas is difficult to effectively alleviate. It is expected that the domestic gasoline and diesel market may continue to rise before the National Day holiday.

Petrochemical, oil service industry chain and gold get attention

A number of brokerages and fund analyst teams believe that the fluctuation of crude oil prices will bring investment opportunities for A shares and gold.

For A- share investment targets, Huatai Securities analyst team believes that the rise in oil prices may push up the overall price level of the petrochemical industry chain, in terms of resources, the relevant targets include PetroChina, Xinao shares, satellite petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengyi Petrochemical and so on.

Lianxun Securities issued a research report stating that since August 2018, the state has repeatedly urged the three major oil companies (PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC) to increase exploration and exploitation efforts to ensure the security of my country's energy strategy. At present, my country's shale oil and gas development is still in its infancy. my country's shale oil and gas reserves are the world's largest. The next period of time will be the golden time for oil and gas equipment. Focus on core equipment suppliers for shale oil and gas development. Companies related to the oil service industry will also benefit.

Gold is once again in the spotlight. The Cathay Pacific Fund analyst team said that this risk event has intensified the market's concerns about geopolitical issues in the Middle East, and the safe-haven value of gold may be highlighted in the short term. On the other hand, higher oil prices will also raise the level of inflation, and with interest rates unchanged or even lower, real interest rates will fall further, raising the value of gold. (From China Energy Network)