The difference between production and demand in the second quarter decreased to boost the refined oil market.
In the second quarter, the difference between China's refined oil production and demand will decrease. This may boost the domestic market. The domestic refined oil market may usher in the "window period" of rare sales expansion and efficiency in recent years ".
Summer oil consumption peak approaching, domestic oil production is expected to decline. Affected by this, the difference between domestic refined oil production and demand in the second quarter will decrease by about 40% year-on-year. According to data from the China Petroleum Planning Institute, the apparent consumption of domestic refined oil in the second quarter will increase by 3% year-on-year, the output of refined oil will decrease by 1.9 year-on-year, and the difference between production and demand will be 6.96 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.16 million tons.
The main reason for the decline in refined oil production was the shutdown of a number of state-owned refineries in the second quarter. According to the statistics of China Petroleum News, at least 11 state-owned refineries ushered in the "maintenance season" in the second quarter ". PetroChina has six companies such as Urumqi Petrochemical and Dalian Xitai for maintenance, involving a daily processing capacity of about 850000 barrels of crude oil. This will temporarily ease the pressure of oversupply in the refined oil market.
In addition to the overhaul of state-owned refineries, the decline in refined oil production is also related to the decline in ground refining production caused by the renewed tightening of the consumption tax. Affected by the overall strengthening of the supervision of refined oil consumption tax, the tax costs of local refineries have risen, regular refining units have suffered serious losses, and the operating rate is low. In the second quarter, some refineries have successively joined the ranks of shutdown and maintenance. According to the statistics of the United Futures Network, as of early April, seven refineries, including Dongming Petrochemical's old factory and Dongfang Hualong, had been overhauled. Since late April, the number of refineries and maintenance manufacturers has continued to increase.
The second quarter is a rare opportunity to expand the sales of refined oil products during the year. Ding Shaoheng, deputy director of the Marketing Institute of China Petroleum Planning Institute, believes that the reduction of the gap between production and demand will play a good role in supporting the market price of refined oil, and state-owned refineries and sales units need to seize the opportunity and actively respond. For state-owned refineries, due to large-scale maintenance, the arrival rate of refined oil supplied to sales units will decrease in the next month or two. Sales units should have a predictive judgment on the supply of resources in state-owned refineries, increase the scale of external resources, and seize the favorable opportunities of increased demand for refined oil and upward prices to expand sales and increase efficiency. After July, the demand for gasoline and diesel also has a greater downward pressure.
Large-scale maintenance in the second quarter will not affect the overall oversupply of refined oil market. After the "window period", the refined oil market may usher in more intense competition. Ding Shaoheng believes that the suspension of maintenance will lead to a gap in the supply of compliant oil products, resulting in structural supply constraints in the refined oil market. Two or three months later, the overhauled state-owned refineries will resume production one after another, and the refined oil produced by newly built large private refineries such as Hengli Petrochemical will also accelerate to enter the market, and the gap between production and demand may further increase, and refined oil sales enterprises may face greater competitive pressure. "Sales units should continue to maintain the export of refined oil from May to June, balance the domestic market, and lay the foundation for more intense competition in the future." Ding Shaoheng said. (From China Energy Network)