Domestic refined oil prices may rise sixth in the year
Domestic refined oil prices, which have just been lowered this year due to VAT adjustments, may rise again this Friday.
April 8 is the sixth working day of this round of gasoline and diesel pricing cycle. The crude oil change rate measured by commodity analysis agency Zhuochuang Information is 2.89, and the price of gasoline and diesel is increased by 146 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to 92 gasoline., The prices of No. 0 diesel increased by 0.11 yuan/liter and 0.12 yuan/liter respectively.
According to data from Longzhong Information, as of April 5, the measured comprehensive change rate of crude oil was 3.46, and the corresponding increase in gasoline and diesel prices was 125 yuan/ton.
Zhang Jinyi, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told the interface news reporter that there are still four working days before the price adjustment window, and crude oil may continue to rise in the later period. This round of domestic refined oil retail price increase will be a high probability event.
Since the beginning of this cycle, the positive continuation of OPEC production cuts, the contraction of Venezuelan crude oil supply, coupled with the stabilization of economic data in China, the United States and other countries, the market's expectations for energy demand have improved, and international oil prices have rebounded significantly.
As of the close of trading on April 6, Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures prices rose 1.58 percent to close at $63.08/barrel; London Brent crude oil futures prices rose 1.35 percent to close at $70.34/barrel.
Since the end of October 2018, international oil prices have plummeted and soared, and have now returned to the 2018 average level of US $70 per barrel.
Li Jiawei, a crude oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, told Interface News that the recent upward momentum in the crude oil market is sufficient, and the positive factors are still dominant.
"From the supply side, Libya's daily crude oil production increased rapidly in March, but the intensification of military conflicts in the country may pose a threat to oil production; Venezuela's crude oil production has fallen to more than 16 years due to US sanctions. The low point in the year." Li Jiawei said that from the demand side, the strong oil consumption data has eliminated the worry about the slowdown of demand growth, and the market's optimistic expectation of the outcome of Sino US trade negotiations has also played a supporting role to a certain extent.
But oil prices are also affected by some negative factors. Li Jiawei pointed out that factors such as the increase in US crude oil inventories for two consecutive weeks, the record high of US crude oil production and the strengthening of the US dollar have limited the room for oil prices to rise.
Since 2019, domestic refined oil price adjustments have experienced five price increases and one stranding. On April 1, due to the adjustment of value-added tax, refined oil products were lowered for the first time in the year.
Up to now, this year's gasoline and diesel have both increased by 525 yuan/ton, equivalent to an increase of 0.41 yuan/liter for No. 92 gasoline and 0.45 yuan/liter for No. 0 diesel.
According to the calculation of the price adjustment cycle of the current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, the current gasoline and diesel price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on April 12 (this Friday). (From China Energy Network)