New changes in the global oil and gas market in the next 5 years
From March 11 to 15, the 38th Cambridge Energy Week (CERAWeek) hosted by IHS Markit was held in Houston, USA. Energy Week attracted more than 4500 energy practitioners from government departments, non-governmental organizations, energy companies, scientific research institutions, and university think tanks from more than 70 countries.
With the theme of "New Competitive World: Reshaping the Future of Energy", this energy week invited more than 800 speakers to share their research results in geopolitics, trade costs, oil price fluctuations, environmental protection, new energy development and so on through more than 400 forums, dialogues and breakfast luncheons. This year's Energy Week set up a special "Special Dialogue" China special session focusing on China's energy development to explore the development trend of China's oil internationalization and energy transformation. The "Leadership Dialogue" of Energy Week invited leaders from world-renowned companies such as Chevron, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Russian Lukoil, Petrobras and other world-renowned companies to have a one-on-one dialogue, demonstrating different companies in responding to energy challenges. Practical measures. One of the highlights of this energy week is the "ministerial dialogue" link. More than 35 ministers and government representatives discussed the challenges of energy development in their respective countries and regions. Energy Week also provides an interactive platform for technology innovation projects in the industry-AGORA. The projects participating in the exhibition are all cutting-edge or even disruptive technologies, involving driverless driving, carbon intensity control, electric vehicles, hydrogen energy technology, etc. Many non-traditional energy companies, such as Amazon and Microsoft, participated in the project.
On March 11, local time, at the first press conference of the 38th Cambridge Energy Week CERAWeek, the Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol (Fatih Birol) released the "Crude Oil Market Analysis and Forecast Report for the Next 5 Years" ", the development of the global oil and gas industry in the next 5 years is prospected.
Diversification of global oil supply
The report notes that U.S. shale oil production is growing strongly. In the next five years, U.S. crude oil production capacity will account for 70% of global crude oil production capacity. U.S. oil exports are expected to increase to 9 million barrels per day by the end of 2024, with exports approaching Saudi Arabia. Natural gas production will account for 75% of new global natural gas production. The United States is about to usher in the second wave of the shale revolution, which will further affect the overall pattern of the international oil and gas industry and accelerate the diversification of global oil supply.
Demand for crude oil will not be capped in 5 years
In the next five years, global oil demand will not be capped and will maintain a relatively moderate average annual growth.
By 2024, global crude oil demand will increase by 7.1 million barrels per day. The main sources of growth are Asia and the United States. Despite signs of a slowdown in the global economy, energy demand in Asia will remain strong in the next five years, and China will remain an important energy consumer.
The IEA also warned that by 2024, India's demand for crude oil will be comparable to China's.
Electric vehicles will curb gasoline demand growth
As electric vehicle technology changes rapidly and gasoline demand is less than before, aviation fuel will be the main driver of demand growth. In the next five years, the production of electric vehicles will show a rapid growth trend, posing a challenge to traditional cars.
Industry rules are redefined
In the next five years, the world's attention to the sustainable development of oil and natural gas will not decrease. On the other hand, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will revise the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, which requires that "the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel oil used by ocean-going vessels must be reduced from 3.5 per cent to 0.5 per cent". The newly revised convention is scheduled to enter into force on January 1, 2020. This means that the global refining and transportation links will be updated on a large scale, and various rules will be redefined.
Geopolitical factors have never been taken so seriously.
Geopolitical factors are having a profound impact on global energy markets. Many politically volatile regions are important resource countries, and regional instability will accelerate oil and gas price shocks.
Environmental protection will be a major challenge
Enterprises should strengthen investment in scientific and technological innovation, improve production links, reduce harmful gas emissions, and increase the use of clean new energy such as solar energy and wind energy.
Many Chinese representatives expressed their views on the above issues and responded to the concerns of the world with Chinese views, Chinese practices and Chinese voices. (From China Energy Network)