International oil prices rose 18%! 251 yuan/ton! Before the Spring Festival, domestic refined oil prices "2 consecutive rises" stable?
Since the beginning of January, the international oil price has risen by 18%, so why has the international oil price risen so much?
In addition, the domestic oil price is about to usher in the second price adjustment window, that is, on January 28, the domestic finished oil price will usher in a new round of price adjustment. At that time, what will be the domestic oil price?
01 Entering 2019, international oil prices began to rebound sharply!
By the close of trading on the 18th, US Oil was up 4.43 per cent at $53.98 a barrel, while Brent crude was up 3.28 per cent at $62.58 a barrel.
In fact, oil prices have risen 18% since the beginning of January, the largest increase in the first 13 trading days of January since 2001. OPEC production fell in December by the most in nearly two years as fears of global oversupply faded.
Why did international oil prices soar by 18% in less than a month?
In this regard, energy analysts believe that there are three main reasons for this wave of international oil prices: the progress of the (trade) negotiations between China and the United States, the Fed's moderate interest rate hike, and OPEC-led production cuts. Specifically:
1. The recent trade (negotiation) between China and the United States has been good, and it is good news for the global economy!
You know, generally speaking, when the global economy recovers or booms, the demand for crude oil will rise, leading to higher oil prices. Conversely, demand for crude oil will fall and oil prices will fall.
2, the Fed's moderate interest rate hike, which means that the dollar will depreciate, which further affects oil prices!
As we all know, at present, international crude oil transactions are mainly settled in US dollars, and changes in the US dollar exchange rate also have a certain impact on crude oil prices. And the Fed's interest rate hike attitude slows down, or let the dollar depreciate, and once the dollar depreciates, for oil importing countries other than the United States, non-dollar denominated oil will be relatively cheaper, these countries will increase oil imports, thereby pushing up oil prices.
3. OPEC's production reduction plan -1.2 million barrels per day, which began in January, also supports the rise of international oil prices to a certain extent!
OPEC cut oil production sharply in December, falling 751000 barrels a day to 31.58 million barrels, the biggest monthly decline in nearly two years, according to OPEC's latest monthly report. Worried about falling oil prices and rising supplies, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed in December to resume production cuts in 2019. They pledged to cut production by 1.2 million bpd, with OPEC accounting for 800000 bpd.
03 After watching the international oil price, how about our domestic oil price?
First of all, let's review the rise and fall of domestic oil prices in 2018!
Looking at 2018, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products ended in a pattern of "13 up, 11 down and 1 stranded. For the whole year of 2018, gasoline prices have been reduced by 415 yuan per ton, and diesel prices have been reduced by 400 yuan per ton.
However, in 2019, the domestic oil price began to rise. First of all, the oil price was raised when the first round of price adjustment window was opened. According to Zhuochuang data, as of January 20, the crude oil change rate was 6.63. It is expected that the increase rate on January 28 will be 251 yuan/ton, and the basic oil price will be increased.
According to my country's refined oil pricing mechanism-according to the price of crude oil in the international market, my country's refined oil prices are adjusted, that is, when the price adjustment range is less than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment will be made, and it will be included in the next price adjustment to accumulate or offset.
Therefore, according to the current rate of change, by then, No. 92 gasoline will rise by 0.19 yuan/liter, and it will cost 9.5 yuan more to fill a tank with a 50L tank.
Therefore, according to the current trend, before the Spring Festival, that is, at 24:00 on January 28, the increase in oil prices is expected to continue to expand, and all cars are mainly ready. (China Energy Network)