New Year's oil price "first tune": no chance of "six consecutive falls" probability will run aground
Economic Daily-China Economic Net, Beijing, January 11 (Reporter Wang Wanying)
At the beginning of the new year, the first oil price adjustment in 2019 was ushered in. At 24:00 on the 14th, the refined oil price adjustment window opened. Due to the first week of the new year, multiple benefits have pushed up international oil prices. It is expected that the domestic refined oil price adjustment will be stranded at that time, and there will be no chance of "six consecutive declines".
According to a reporter from Economic Daily-China Economic Net, in 2018, domestic refined oil prices were adjusted 26 times, of which 13 times were raised, 12 times were lowered, 1 time was stranded, gasoline was lowered by 490 yuan/ton, and diesel was lowered by 465 yuan/Ton.
Since entering 2019, international oil prices have ended more than two consecutive months of decline, the rate of change has shown an upward trend, OPEC-led production cuts have taken effect, Saudi Arabia also plans to reduce exports, effectively boosting market confidence, coupled with the Fed's slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes, European and American stock markets have rebounded, international oil prices have skyrocketed.
According to Zhuochuang Information, as of January 9, the comprehensive change rate of crude oil is 0.37, which is expected to increase by 15 yuan/ton. WTI crude oil futures prices will return to US $50/barrel to US $52.36/barrel, and the daily line will also hit "Seven Lianyang"; Brent rose 2.72 US dollars to close at 61.44 US dollars per barrel.
From the perspective of the domestic market, in this cycle, stimulated by the rising trend of international crude oil, the wholesale price of gasoline and diesel oil has shown an overall upward trend. At the same time, the recent increase in demand for foreign mining such as Sinopec has also brought positive support.
According to the principle of "ten working days" for domestic refined oil adjustment, the price adjustment window for this round is 24:00 on January 14, 2019. As the current forecast range of refined oil has not yet reached the 50 yuan/ton adjustment red line stipulated by the state, the current round of refined oil retail price limit will probably run aground. After this price adjustment, the price adjustment pattern in 2019 will become "zero rise, zero fall and one stranded".
In addition, the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on January 28, 2019. At present, the favorable factors in the international crude oil market are gradually increasing, and it is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be too high. (From China Energy Network)