Five consecutive rises in oil prices into the "seven yuan era", the political situation of oil exporting countries is the main incentive
In April, market instability caused oil prices to fall in the first half of the year. But after the middle of the year, while the situation in Syria was tense, the dollar price fell, supporting oil prices. In addition, API crude oil and fuel stocks fell across the board, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained tense, and OPEC's comments were good for the oil market. International crude oil prices continue to rise, and have now risen to a three-and-a-half-year high, and domestic refined oil retail prices have once again started a continuous increase mode.
Jinlianchuang refined oil analyst Zou Xuelian told the "Securities Daily" reporter yesterday that due to the sharp rise in international crude oil in mid-April, domestic refined oil products were raised on April 12, and retail prices achieved "two consecutive increases". Entering the current pricing cycle, international crude oil still maintains a high level of strong operation, the rate of change to maintain a positive wide range of operation, upward expectations of strong performance.
On April 25, the closing price of crude oil stopped rising and falling, but due to the high oil price in the previous period, the current round of oil price increase is expected to continue to widen. On the 9th working day of this round, Zhongyu Information estimated that the crude oil change rate was 6.59. The estimated price of 71.758 US dollars/barrel is 4.435 higher than the benchmark price. It is temporarily expected that the zero limit price of refined oil will be increased by 250 yuan/ton at 24:00 on the 26th.
Zou Xuelian said that domestic gasoline will fully enter the "7 yuan era". The "May Day" holiday is coming soon, and the cost of private car travel will increase. In addition, the operating costs of logistics and transportation industries will also increase significantly. Since the second half of last year, the retail price of domestic refined oil has been mainly increased, and the cost of downstream oil has increased significantly compared with the middle of last year.
Yang Xiaofen, a refined oil analyst at Zhongyu Information, told the Securities Daily yesterday that at present, according to the market demand situation, it is not the peak demand season, the consumption situation in the terminal market is not good, and the market shipment is under pressure. However, boosted by the favorable crude oil, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices have shown a trend of recovery in this round of pricing cycle, which gradually narrows the wholesale and retail price difference of diesel is more obvious. At present, the price is 950 yuan, compared with the end of the previous cycle, the price of diesel oil has been reduced by 100 yuan/ton. Since March, the price of diesel oil has bottomed out and rebounded. The bullish sentiment in the market has gradually increased, pushing the price to rise steadily. However, due to the pressure of shipment, the actual transaction still maintains preferential policies. (International Oil Network)