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Sinopec and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jointly release blue oil book

Sinopec and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jointly release blue oil book

(Summary description)Sinopec and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jointly released the "Petroleum Blue Book: China Petroleum Industry Development Report (2018)".

Sinopec and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jointly release blue oil book

(Summary description)Sinopec and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jointly released the "Petroleum Blue Book: China Petroleum Industry Development Report (2018)".


  Sinopec and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jointly released the "Petroleum Blue Book: China Petroleum Industry Development Report (2018)". The Blue Book disclosed that in 2017, the demand side of China's refined oil market has improved, with apparent consumption reaching 320 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. From the perspective of the main supplier, a diversified competition pattern has been formed.

  The Blue Book conducts an in-depth analysis of major economic issues and industry issues related to oil demand and future development trends, and proposes Chinese perspectives on major issues such as China and global future oil demand. The main content involves China and the world's oil exploration and development, trade, and refining industries , Reviewed and analyzed the trend of global oil prices in recent decades, and proposed corresponding cooperation proposals for the “Belt and Road” initiative, which have high application value and will enhance China ’s leadership and discourse in the global petroleum and petrochemical field Rights are of great significance.

  It is reported that the Petroleum Blue Book Conference held in Beijing was hosted by Sinopec, and jointly organized by the China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation Institute of Economics and Technology, China International Petroleum and Chemical Corporation Organized, this book is not only China's first oil blue book, but also the first time that Sinopec has shared its views, opinions, and judgments on the oil market with domestic and foreign oil practitioners.

  In 2017, China surpassed the United States as the world's largest crude oil importer for the first time. In 2017, China's crude oil imports reached 8.43 million barrels per day, an increase of 10% over the previous year. It exceeded the US's 7.91 million barrels per day for the first time, leading the global oil trade to accelerate its eastward movement. As the Middle East crude oil export resources continue to tighten, China ’s crude oil imports from the Middle East continue to decline, the United States will become an important source of China ’s crude oil imports, and China ’s imports of US crude oil are expected to exceed the 10 million tons mark. Russia ’s crude oil exports from east to China will further increase, and it will remain China ’s largest source of crude oil imports. China's crude oil imports from Brazil will further increase. As the world's largest oil refiner, Sinopec, the subsidiary of China International Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, as the world's largest oil trader, has continued to increase its influence and voice in the global oil market.

  China's refined oil demand in 2018 may increase by 3% over the previous year. The demand side of China's refined oil market improved in 2017, with apparent consumption reaching 320 million tons. From the point of view of supply, the capacity of the three major groups, PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC, decreased from 83% in 2007 to 66%; other state-owned enterprises accounted for about 9%; private refineries accounted for 2007 From 11% to 24%, a diversified competition pattern for the main supply of refined oil market has been formed. In 2018, China's refined oil market-oriented reforms continue to move forward. It is expected that China's refined oil demand will increase by about 3% year-on-year in 2018. In the medium and long term, the growth rate of China's refined oil market demand will gradually slow down. Among them, during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, diesel consumption entered a plateau period before falling, gasoline consumption peaked in 2025-2030, and the peak of kerosene demand will be delayed for about another 10 years.

  China's refined oil exports show normalization and scale. The world demand for refined oil products increased rapidly in 2017, and it is expected to continue to maintain a high growth rate in 2018. In 2018, China's refined oil export policy may continue to tilt towards general trade, and refined oil exports will continue to grow moderately. The total is expected to exceed 41 million tons, an increase of about 4% year-on-year. In the medium and long term, considering the slowdown in the growth of domestic demand for refined oil products and the successive commissioning of large-scale refineries around 2020, refined oil exports will continue to climb year by year. Cross-regional trade and large ship assembly will become a trend, which will affect the Asia-Pacific region and the world The pattern of refined oil trade has an important impact.

  Brent oil prices may fluctuate between $ 50-70 per barrel in 2018. 2017 is the first year that the global oil market has truly started to rebalance since the current round of oil price declines. Oil inventories have begun to decline, but they have not reached the average of the past five years. In 2018, the global oil market was generally tightly balanced. At the same time, the geopolitical turmoil has intensified and the uncertainty facing the macro economy has increased. This has further complicated the situation in the oil market. It is initially estimated that the Brent oil price in 2018 will be 50- Fluctuations between $ 70 / barrel.

  Relying on a good foundation of the petroleum industry, China has broad space for investment and cooperation with the countries along the “Belt and Road”. China has a good foundation for the petroleum industry, and there is ample space for future investment and cooperation. In 2016, the refining capacity of the countries along the “Belt and Road” reached 1.52 billion tons / year, accounting for 31.2% of the world's total; in 2020, the refining capacity will increase to 1.67 billion tons / year, accounting for a further increase to 32.3%. From the point of view of the device structure, the capacity of major secondary processing equipment such as catalytic cracking and delayed coking is relatively low compared with the world average, and the deep processing capacity of crude oil is insufficient, and more investment is needed. In the future, there is also much room for improvement in oil quality in the region. The supply and demand of refined oil products in the “Belt and Road” region increased rapidly, accounting for an increase in the global share. Most countries along the “Belt and Road” are open to foreign investment in the refining and chemical industry. Some countries have signed bilateral trade protection agreements with China, and some countries have established precedents for cooperation in the refining and chemical industry with China. In recent years, Chinese companies have continuously developed breakthroughs in refining technology and refining equipment. They can not only provide complete sets of advanced technologies for ten million tons of refining, million tons of ethylene, million tons of aromatics, but also provide refining and production. One-stop overall solution for plant engineering design, construction, start-up, etc., and has accumulated rich experience in technological transformation and quality upgrade of refining and chemical enterprises, and has the ability to provide comprehensive solutions for upgrading and refining of refining and chemical plants in the “Belt and Road” region. Services.

  Global investment in exploration and development has increased slightly, and China's petroleum exploration and development has great potential in the future. U.S. shale oil exploration activities continue to increase in 2018, and U.S. crude oil production is expected to exceed 10 million barrels per day. The Middle East and Latin America have become important regions for the growth of conventional oil and gas production. China has abundant petroleum resources, a large total volume, a low level of exploration and development and utilization, and great potential in the future. It is also urgent to strengthen exploration and increase its recoverable reserves. As of the end of 2016, the cumulative proven petroleum geological reserves were 38.1 billion tons, and the proven recoverable reserves were 10.1 billion tons. The proven rate of petroleum geological resources was 30.3%, which is in the middle stage of exploration. The utilization rate of recoverable petroleum resources is 21.6 %, In the early and middle stages of development. As the international oil market rebalances and the domestic economy stabilizes and improves, the upstream oil industry is expected to maintain stable development for a long time. The main measures are to strengthen the geological survey and evaluation of oil and gas resources, accelerate the reform of the management system of oil and gas resources, strengthen the innovation of key technologies and major equipment, and improve support policies for the exploration and development of oil and gas resources, and strive to stabilize the national oil production at about 200 million tons in the medium and long term. The global oil refining industry is undergoing profound changes, and China's oil refining industry has entered a stage of transformation and upgrading. The refining industry has entered a new cycle of prosperity, and the refining margin has continued to improve, and the major refining centers have shown a differentiated development trend. Among them, the refining capacity in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions has rapidly increased, while the refining capacity in North America has steadily increased, while the refining capacity in Europe, Central and South America, and Africa has stagnated. In the chemical industry, investment in the petrochemical industry picked up steadily from 2016 to 2018, and demand increased significantly. At present, China's oil refining industry ranks second in the world. In the future, industrial restructuring and market-oriented reforms will become an important part of the restructuring and upgrading of the refining industry, and the supervision of the refined oil industry will continue to advance. In 2017, China's crude oil processing capacity exceeded 800 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, accounting for 17% of global capacity. With the changes in the market environment, China's oil refining industry is entering a phase of transformation and upgrading. First, there is a clear trend of refining and chemical companies' bases, parks and integration. The second is to speed up the elimination of outdated devices, and the industry's concentration has continued to increase. Third, oil refining enterprises will speed up structural adjustment and improve competitiveness. Fourth, the refinery production process needs to face the challenges of cleanliness and low carbonization.

  By 2050, energy development may go through three stages. Based on the national energy revolution strategy and the judgment of the economic and social development situation at home and abroad, the energy development from now to 2050 can be divided into three phases: structural optimization period, structural transition period, and system finalization period. Among them, before 2020 is the period of structural optimization, the total energy consumption will be controlled at about 5 billion tons of standard coal, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in the total primary energy consumption will reach about 15%; 2021-2030 is the structural transition period, and energy The total consumption will be controlled within 6 billion tons of standard coal, and natural gas will usher in rapid development opportunities. By 2020, it will account for 15% of primary energy consumption, and non-fossil energy will account for 20% of primary energy consumption. During the system finalization period, the total energy consumption was stable at about 6 billion tons of standard coal, and a "clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient" energy system was basically formed. (From the International Petroleum Network)

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