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The decline in oil prices returned to 100 yuan/ton. Can oil prices fall for "four consecutive falls" next week?


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Time:2018-12-09

【Summary】After this week, the 25th oil price adjustment in 2018 (the 24th cyclical oil price adjustment) will be held next week. This oil price adjustment will also be the penultimate oil price adjustment this year. According to the current statistics, it is not certain that the oil price will fall this time, and the follow-up trend needs to be observed.

After this week, the 25th oil price adjustment in 2018 (the 24th cyclical oil price adjustment) will be held next week. This oil price adjustment will also be the penultimate oil price adjustment this year. According to the current statistics, it is not certain that the oil price will fall this time, and the follow-up trend needs to be observed.

At 24: 00 on December 14 (12: 00 p.m. next Friday), there are still six days to go before the oil price adjustment, and the statistical days have just exceeded half of the time, coming to six working days. The oil price is expected to be lowered by 102 yuan/ton, which is expected to fall by 0.08 yuan/liter -0.09 yuan/liter. Affected by the recent rise and fall of international oil prices, today's oil price reduction continues to be lower than the previous day, an increase of 4 yuan/ton, but the expected reduction of 102 yuan/ton does not guarantee that oil prices will fall, and it is necessary to continue to track the follow-up trend of international oil prices.

On December 7, NYMEX crude oil futures closed up 1.24 percent at $52.13 a barrel, up 2.36 percent this week. Brent crude futures closed up 2.23 percent at $61.40 a barrel, up 3.26 percent this week. OPEC + has reached an agreement to cut production by 1.2 million bpd from January next year. On Friday (December 7) night, the OPEC meeting came heavy news.

The Iraqi oil minister said that OPEC has agreed to cut production by 800000 barrels per day and 1.2 million barrels per day. The agreement will be implemented in January 2019 for six months and will be evaluated again in April next year.

Subsequently, the communique issued by OPEC showed that it would reduce oil production by 800000 barrels per day on the basis of October 2018, which would take effect in January 2019 and last for six months. The next OPEC meeting will be held in Vienna in April 2019. Venezuela will receive a one-year term as OPEC's rotating chairman.

The energy minister of the United Arab Emirates said that non-European countries will reduce production by 400000 barrels per day; this will mean that OPEC will reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day from January.

The Russian Energy Minister also confirmed the joint OPEC and non-OPEC production reduction of 1.2 million barrels per day. Iran, Venezuela and Libya do not have to undertake the obligation to reduce production.

Production cuts slightly exceeded market expectations of 1 million barrels per day, the United States cloth two oil quickly higher.

At one point, Brent crude futures surged 6 percent to a high of $63.73 a barrel; by the close, Brent crude futures closed up 2.23 percent at $61.40 a barrel, up 3.26 percent this week.

After the "three consecutive falls" in November, the oil price has almost returned to the price at the end of last year. Whether the oil price can fall this time will affect whether the oil price will eventually rise or fall this year.

After the fall in international oil prices on the previous 2 days, there was a rise again today. If the international oil price continues to rise in the future, then the oil price may not be able to fall this time, and there is still the possibility of stranding or rising. (article from the Changxing Island petrochemical market official website)


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