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Refined oil prices increase, spend 5 yuan for a full tank of oil

Refined oil prices increase, spend 5 yuan for a full tank of oil

(Summary description)Following the last round of higher refined oil prices, domestic refined oil prices have ushered in the eleventh increase in 2019. On September 18

Refined oil prices increase, spend 5 yuan for a full tank of oil

(Summary description)Following the last round of higher refined oil prices, domestic refined oil prices have ushered in the eleventh increase in 2019. On September 18

Information

  Following the last round of higher refined oil prices, domestic refined oil prices have ushered in the eleventh increase in 2019. On September 18, the Development and Reform Commission issued a notice that the gasoline and diesel price limit will be raised at 2400 on September 18, and each ton of gasoline and diesel will be raised by 125 yuan.

 

  Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission stated that gasoline No. 89 was adjusted from 6.21 yuan per litre to 6.31 yuan, an increase of 0.10 yuan; gasoline 92 was adjusted from 6.64 yuan per litre to 6.74 yuan, an increase of 0.10 yuan; gasoline 95 was adjusted from 7.06 yuan to 7.17 Increase of 0.11 yuan; No. 0 diesel is adjusted from 6.30 yuan per liter to 6.41 yuan, an increase of 0.11 yuan.

 

Calculated based on ordinary private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50L. After this price adjustment, car owners will spend about 5 yuan more to fill a tank of gas. For urban vehicles that consume 7L-8L per 100 kilometers, the average cost per 1,000 kilometers will increase by 7-8 yuan.

 

  It is worth noting that the attack on Saudi Arabia ’s oil facilities last Saturday (September 14) resulted in the suspension of more than 5 million barrels per day of production capacity. Negative effects continue to ferment, aggravating supply risk concerns, and international oil prices have skyrocketed, the largest single-day increase since 1988.

 

  Xu Wenwen, a product oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that after the price adjustment, the cumulative increase in gasoline this year was 365 yuan / ton, and the increase in diesel oil was 370 yuan / ton. The next price adjustment window will open at 20:00 on October 8, 2019.

 

  The cumulative increase in gasoline this year is 365 yuan / ton

 

  The price adjustment for the private car owners and logistics companies increased slightly. Calculated based on ordinary private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50L. After this price adjustment, owners will spend about 5 yuan more to fill up a tank of fuel. For urban vehicles that consume 7L-8L per 100 kilometers, the cost will increase on average per 1,000 kilometers. 7-8 yuan.

 

  Xu Wenwen, a product oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that after this round of price adjustments, the retail price limit for No. 92 gasoline in most regions of the country is 6.5-6.7 yuan / liter. This price adjustment will increase the cost of fuel for some private car owners. After the price adjustment, the cumulative increase in gasoline this year was 365 yuan / ton, and the increase in diesel oil was 370 yuan / ton.

 

  "During this round of pricing cycle (September 3-September 18), due to geopolitical factors, international oil prices have generally risen, the rate of change in the three places has continued to be positive, and refined oil prices have welcomed two consecutive increases." Oil analyst Liu Peipei said.

 

  Liu Peipei said that the current high crude oil prices and the continuous refining prices in Shandong province, coupled with the uneven deployment of resources in East China, South China, and Southwest China have caused tight supply of refined oil resources in multiple regions, and various factors have driven the domestic diesel purchase and sales atmosphere. As a result, the replenishment mentality of the operators has turned into a good one, driving the main business and local refining to speed up the pace of warehouse delivery, but the persistently high wholesale prices have also made terminal retail profits shrink severely.

 

  "This time the gasoline and diesel prices are on the rise and continue to bring good support to the market. Gasoline consumption is still healthy in October, and outdoor operations such as engineering infrastructure have been rushing. The logistics and transportation industry has also become active, driving domestic diesel demand substantially. Midstream and downstream Optimistic about the market outlook, coupled with the current shortage of supply in the market as a whole, the prices of main units and refineries continue to increase. It is expected that the price of domestic gasoline and diesel will continue to rise steadily until the next round of price adjustments comes. "Liu Peipei Say.

 

  Saudi Arabia's production capacity recovers quickly, oil prices ride on a roller coaster

 

  The attack on Saudi Arabia ’s oil facilities last Saturday caused the suspension of more than 5 million barrels per day of production capacity. Negative effects continue to ferment, aggravating supply risk concerns, and international oil prices have skyrocketed.

 

  On September 16th, the opening gains of both WTI and Brent were the largest single-day gains since 1991. In the morning, Brent crude oil rose nearly 19%, and NYMEX crude oil futures prices rose more than 16%. As of the close, domestic crude oil futures rose more than 6%, fuel oil and asphalt rose 5%, ethylene glycol futures closed at a daily limit, Zheng alcohol and plastic rose more than 4%.

 

  Subsequently, the international oil price is now a roller coaster. On Tuesday, the Saudi Energy Minister revealed at a news conference that Saudi Arabia ’s damaged production capacity has been successfully restored by 50% in the past two days and is expected to return to normal levels by the end of September-about 11 million barrels per day, which is expected to rise further to 12 million barrels per day by the end of November. day. As of the close, WTI October crude oil futures plunged 5.7% to $ 59.34 per barrel, while Brent crude oil October contract fell 6.5% to $ 64.46 per barrel.

 

  "Supported by the skyrocketing cost of crude oil, the domestic market for refined oil products has risen sharply. Diesel fuels have hung up to the maximum wholesale price limit. Gasoline prices have risen as high as 300-500 yuan / ton, and individual increases have exceeded 1,000. Limited sales, "said Fu Xiaosheng, an analyst at Longzhong.

 

  He introduced that under the support of tighter resources, various regions have entered a price increase mode, and downstream replenishment has increased, replenishment has increased, and stocking demand has improved from the previous period. East China's main daily shipments range from 2,000 to 3,000 tons. The center of gravity of the transaction has also rapidly increased. The center of gravity of the wholesale end of East China gasoline rose to around 7,200 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity of the diesel oil transaction rose to around 7,000 yuan / ton.

 

  The retail price rose, and the profit of the zero-spread gas stations rebounded. Fu Xiaosheng said that in combination with the current Lonzon data model analysis, compared with the previous price adjustment cycle, the retail price increased, and the wholesale price has increased significantly in recent days, making the profit margin of gas stations fall from the previous period. Among them, the retail profit of gasoline at the main gas station dropped by 328 yuan per ton on average; the retail profit of diesel at the main gas station fell by 125 yuan per ton, and the profit of diesel oil sold at the refining gas station at the same time fell by 46 yuan per ton. The decline was 131 yuan / ton.

 

  He predicts that retail profits will pick up in the later period. The retail profit forecast for gasoline is raised by approximately 0.09 yuan / liter, and the retail profit for diesel is reduced by approximately 0.11 yuan / liter.

 

  The next round of refined oil price adjustment or upward

 

  The next price adjustment window will open at 20:00 on October 8, 2019. Long Yan Information analyst Li Yan said that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil prices will start to show an upward trend, with a range of about 200 yuan / ton. In mid-September, Saudi Arabia ’s oil facilities suffered the biggest attack in a decade. The turbulence in the international crude oil market has increased, and bullish confidence has strengthened. The favorable geographical factors have overwhelmed the weak economic and demand expectations, and the bottom support for international oil prices has been strengthened. It is expected that the next round of price adjustments for refined oil products will increase.

 

  Jinlianchuang analyst team said that due to the recent significant increase in crude oil, entering a new round of pricing cycle, the rate of change may be starting to a large extent, the increase is expected to reach 400 yuan / ton, so the next round of retail prices welcome " "Three consecutive rises" are more likely.

 

  "With the current round of increase in the retail price, the price of main diesel in the region will rise as the trend continues. At that time, the price of diesel may continue to maintain the price limit, and the transaction price of gasoline will gradually approach the price limit. Entering a new round of pricing cycle, "Three consecutive gains" is expected to still support the market. "Jinlianchuang analyst team said.

 

  The analyst team said that during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the frequency of private car travel is high, and gasoline demand is also supported. The domestic refined oil market is clearly supported by fundamentals, and resource tensions in some areas are difficult to effectively alleviate. Before the National Day holiday, the domestic gasoline and diesel market is expected to continue to rise.

 

  Petrochemical, oil service industry chain and gold attract attention

 

  Many brokerage firms and fund analyst teams believe that this fluctuation in crude oil prices will bring investment opportunities for A shares and gold.

 

  For the A-share investment target, Huatai Securities analyst team believes that rising oil prices may push up the overall price level of the petrochemical industry chain. In terms of resources, related targets include PetroChina, Xinao Stock, Satellite Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengyi Petrochemical, etc.

 

  Lianxun Securities issued a research report saying that since August 2018, the country has repeatedly urged the three major oil companies (PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC) to increase exploration and extraction efforts at multiple levels to ensure the security of China's energy strategy. At present, China's shale oil and gas development is still in its infancy, and China's shale oil and gas reserves are the first in the world, and it will be a prime time for oil and gas equipment in the future. Focus on suppliers of core equipment for shale oil and gas development. Related companies in the oil service industry will also benefit.

 

  At the same time, gold is getting attention again. Cathay Fund analyst team said that this risk event has heightened the market's concerns about geopolitical issues in the Middle East, and the safe-haven value of gold may be highlighted in the short term. On the other hand, higher oil prices will also increase the level of inflation. With the interest rate level unchanged or even lower, the real interest rate will fall further, increasing the value of gold. (From China Energy Network)

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