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International oil prices rose by 18%! 251 yuan / ton! Before the Spring Festival, the domestic oil prices "stabilized for two consecutive days"?

International oil prices rose by 18%! 251 yuan / ton! Before the Spring Festival, the domestic oil prices "stabilized for two consecutive days"?

(Summary description)Since the beginning of January, international oil prices have risen by 18%, so why have international oil prices rise so much?

International oil prices rose by 18%! 251 yuan / ton! Before the Spring Festival, the domestic oil prices "stabilized for two consecutive days"?

(Summary description)Since the beginning of January, international oil prices have risen by 18%, so why have international oil prices rise so much?

Information

  Since the beginning of January, international oil prices have risen by 18%, so why have international oil prices rise so much?

 

  In addition, the domestic oil price is about to usher in a second price adjustment window. That is, on January 28, domestic refined oil prices will usher in a new round of price adjustments. What will happen to domestic oil prices?

 

  01In 2019, international oil prices began to rebound sharply!

 

  As of the close of the 18th, US Oil was reported at $ 53.98 / barrel, a weekly increase of 4.43%; while Brent crude oil was reported at $ 62.58 / barrel, a weekly increase of 3.28%.

 

  In fact, since the beginning of January, oil prices have risen by 18%, the largest increase in the first 13 trading days since January 2001. As concerns about global oversupply gradually subsided, OPEC output fell the most in nearly two years in December.

 

  02Why did the international oil price soar by 18% in less than a month?

 

  In this regard, energy analysts believe that there are three main reasons for the rise in international oil prices: the progress of (trade) negotiations between China and the United States, the modest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and OPEC + -led production cuts. Specifically:

 

  1. The recent trade (negotiation) process between China and the United States is good, which is good news for the global economy!

 

You know, in general, when the global economy recovers or flourishes, the demand for crude oil will rise, leading to rising oil prices. Conversely, demand for crude oil will fall and oil prices will fall.

 

  2. The attitude of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates moderately means that the dollar will depreciate, which will further affect oil prices!

 

Everyone knows that at present, international crude oil transactions are mainly settled in US dollars, and changes in the US dollar exchange rate also have a certain impact on crude oil prices. The Fed ’s attitude of raising interest rates has slowed down, or the dollar has depreciated. Once the dollar depreciates, for oil importing countries other than the United States, non-US dollar-denominated oil will be relatively cheaper, and these countries will increase their oil imports. This pushed up oil prices.

 

  3. The OPEC + production reduction plan started in January-1.2 million barrels per day, which also supports the rise in international oil prices to a certain extent!

 

OPEC's latest monthly data shows that in December, OPEC significantly reduced its oil production, with daily oil output falling by 751,000 barrels to 31.58 million barrels, the largest monthly decline in the past two years. Fearing of falling oil prices and increased supply, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed last December to resume production cuts in 2019. They promised to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day, of which OPEC accounted for 800,000 barrels per day.

 

  03 After reading the international oil prices, how about our domestic oil prices?

 

  First, let's review the rise and fall of domestic oil prices in 2018!

 

  Throughout 2018, the domestic refined oil price adjustment ended with a pattern of "13 rises, 11 declines, and 1 stranded". Looking at the whole year of 2018, the cumulative price of gasoline is reduced by 415 yuan per ton, and the cumulative price of diesel is reduced by 400 yuan per ton.

 

  However, in 2019, domestic oil prices began to rise. First, oil prices were raised when the first round of price adjustment windows opened. According to Zhuochuang data, as of January 20, the rate of change in crude oil was 6.63%. It is expected that in January The increase was 251 yuan / ton on the 28th, and the basic oil price increase was substantial.

 

  In accordance with China's refined oil pricing mechanism-based on the international market crude oil prices, China's refined oil prices are adjusted, that is, when the price adjustment range is less than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment will be made, and it will be accumulated or offset in the next price adjustment.

 

  Therefore, according to the current rate of change, at that time, 92 # gasoline will increase by 0.19 yuan / liter, and a full tank of 50L will cost 9.5 yuan more to fill a full tank.

 

  Therefore, according to the current trend, until the Spring Festival, that is, at 24:00 on January 28, the increase in oil prices is expected to continue to expand, and you are mainly ready. (China Energy Network)

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